...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR FRANCES CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM CRAIG KEY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF CRAIG KEY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE... INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM...NORTH OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 520 MILES...835 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH... 235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHRA ISLAND...AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.9 N... 73.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 936 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING FRANCES REPORTS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 936 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 138 KT AT 700 MB. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL REPORTED WINDS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS NEAR 125 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 127 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS SINCE 06Z...ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT THIS CONVECTION IS RATHER ASYMMETRIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. FRANCES CONTINUES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A FEATURE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A PROBLEM FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF. THE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION YESTERDAY SEEMS TO HAVE HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE MODELS...AS THE GFS AND GFDL STILL WANT TO TURN FRANCES MORE NORTHWARD....WHILE THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STILL FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THIS LACK OF CHANGE...THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE FIRST 72 HR IS BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND CURRENT MOTION...WITH THIS PART OF THE TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS. AFTER 72 HR...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECASTS. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST OR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN JUST OVER 48 HR. HOWEVER...PEOPLE SHOULD NOT FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT TRACK... AS SMALL CHANGES IN DIRECTION COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION.

FRANCES CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DECREASING A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. SINCE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR 125 KT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD TOP COOLING...FRANCES COULD REACH 130-135 KT INTENSITY ON THE UP SIDE OF THE CURRENT CYCLE.

THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE HURRICANE WATCH TO BE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOT BEING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME AS THE 24 HR FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS